The Quiet Exodus (II)
The roots of Québec's persistent demographic challenge (Part 2)
This is the second piece of a two part article. If you have not done it yet, I strongly recommend you read the first part before, available below.
19th century: The seeds of the great exodus
Besides the demographic effect of burgeoning French-Canadian families as explained in part 1, where households of 10, 12 or 15 kids were common for so long, the composition of today’s geographic Québec changed quite a bit in the century that spans between the 1770’s and 1860’s.
For example, following the successful American revolution, many Loyalists to the British Crown amongst American colonists emigrated in Ontario, the Maritimes but also Québec, in the years that followed US independence. In addition, immigration from across the atlantic shifted for obvious reasons from mostly French to a mix of British, Scottish and Irish settlers.
This shift experienced in the North American political balance of power was thus highly influential in the long run for the evolution of demography in the region. My goal here is not to explore thoroughly all the events that occurred during that particular century but to capture only the underlying conditions that led to consequential population movements by the end of the 19th century.
In the decades following the American Civil War, the conditions were ripe for population movements. Since the British now controlled most of the economic levers in Canada, limits to opportunities outside the family farm or small jobs as daily laborers within their territory, encouraged (some might even say forced) many young French-Canadians to leave their families and the cultural comfort of their villages to take their chances across the border in the multiple mill towns of New England.
Even if the conditions were difficult - long hours, bad wages and sometimes horrible housing - the migration continued for decades to eventually amputate the population of Québec by close to a million citizens, most of whom would never return to their home country.
In his singular book on Franco-Americans, author David Vermette (a French-Canadian descendent himself) aptly observed in his research another facet of Québec’s culture that contributed to this mass exodus. A factor few contemporary observers are willing to acknowledge today, probably because the scars left on Québec society were so deep, thus providing the perfect reason for a voluntary amnesia of this episode of French-Canadian history.
“There were also ideological impediments to Québec’s industrialization. The clerical elite identified industrialism with what they regarded as Anglo-Saxon materialism. Industrialization was for Protestants. Canadien Catholics were quintessentially rural, they believed. Rurality was a feature of national identity.”
David Vermette, Franco-American author and researcher
Thus, if rurality was an intrinsic part of French-Canadian identity for the longest time and if rurality in itself is not a driving force for long term sustainable population growth, urbanization is, it is not surprising Québec was eventually outpaced by New England for example and could not retain the majority of its population in that era.
Vermette later argued in his book that contrary to popular belief in the Anglo-saxon world, French-Canadians were not stuck in their old customs from centuries prior. They had the economic mobility and motivation to make tough decisions against the pressure of Catholic clergy elite. True.
But observing as a whole that French-Canadians at the time were less industrialists and progressive than their neighbors still has some validity.
These statements are not mutually exclusive and can both have some merit simultaneously. It seems reasonable to recognize in hindsight that the most dynamic individuals in an otherwise suffocating society would have taken the chance to start a new life across the border.
More than century later, the diaspora in the US known as the Franco-Americans have very little to no relationship with the country they left. There is unfortunately a form of repudiation that is still prevalent in modern Québec society. The closely knitted kinship of French-Canadians brought positive outcomes of survival throughout its history but this characteristic often brings a tendency to outcast members that voluntarily choose to leave the motherland regardless of the motivations.
In any case, the history of Québec was undoubtedly altered by such an exodus on a massive scale that lasted for decades, well into the 20th century. To put it in perspective, a million people represented about half the population of the territory in this era.
One could only imagine how different Québec would be today if the province had managed to offer the socio-economic opportunities to retain all its citizens.
20th century: Political emancipation and the Loyalist exodus
Demographically speaking, the 20th century could be split in two eras. The first part being the continuing trend of the French-Canadian migration mainly into New England and elsewhere in the US.
In the second half, following the Great Depression and the Second World war period, French-Canadians slowly emancipated themselves from the suffocating shackles of Catholic clerical elites that influenced provincial politics for decades. They slowly gained some economic autonomy and emphasized the democratization of education to catch up with their immediate neighbors.
It eventually led to a political movement that picked up steam and some confidence. The overarching feeling amongst the population was their newly acquired socio-economic status could be translated even further into substantiated political power.
By the late 70’s, early 80’s, the secessionist aspirations of many French-Canadians led to completely different population movements. This time, it was part of the historic English minority that fled the province in anticipation of an eventual independent Québec that could attack its historical rights. A fear that was largely overblown by the Montréal anglo community.
Even though interprovincial migration data within Canada always showed a tendency for English speakers to leave the province of Québec, the table below clearly shows a peak in migration at the end of the 1970’s.
René Levesque, Québec’s Parti Québécois premier from 1976 to 1985 and instigator of the referendum on independence in 1980, was always clear in his intentions of respecting the English minority in a projected Québec state. In a memorable intervention on March 25th 1968 with students at the University of Toronto where he was challenged on the matter, Lévesque was crystal clear by stating that even if supporters around him might be tempted in some form of revenge against the English community after a victorious referendum for independence, Lévesque was firm in his conviction that he would protect their historical rights in education, health care and the like.
In any case, this politically charged period of Québec history with the introduction of new linguistic laws and the threat of secession accelerated an already present phenomenon of “Canadian loyalists” leaving Québec. No to mention the fact, as seen in the table above and regardless of ethnic background, Québec has never seen a positive year in interprovincial migration flow.
And so the quiet exodus continues…
21th century: Québec’s historical fate
Granted, the province has seen some population growth over the centuries to reach around 8.5. million inhabitants today. Immigration from all continents have been relatively steady for the last four to five decades. But Québec continues to slide in proportion to other provinces in the Canadian confederation.
In recent decades since the turn of the 21st century, Québec society has again been facing a looming demographic collapse. Well before mid-century, Québec will have more 65+ citizens than the cohort of 18 years old and younger. Like many industrialized nations, it has to deal with anemic birth rates, but its unstable demography comes also from a combination of factors such as negative interprovincial migration rates (as seen above) and some linguistic roadblocks to immigration.
Not to mention persistent negative effects link to the harsher climate and higher tax rates that tend to encourage highly qualified and mobile workers to move elsewhere in Canada and also in United States. Detailed statistics of Québecois migrating full time to the US is hard to come by but it is possible to extrapolate the numbers from internal movements within Canada.
As we have explored above, throughout Québec’s history, sustaining a vibrant and dynamic population long term has been a lingering challenge.
From the onset of its foundation, New France (or French Canada today) seems to be facing a continuous existential threat as a French speaking society on the continent. Between periods of population booms and busts, Québec consistenly struggles with its future.
Even today, the underlying level of anxiety in regards to the possibility of “disappearing” is so prevalent in Québec’s society that it permeates most political decision and cultural events.
This fear is not new in the local culture but it seems to have reached unprecedented levels in recent years. The distinct society is facing an interesting conundrum where it cannot wrap its head around the fact it ceased being a culture promoting family life and having children, while at the same time being weary of immigration because so many are worried about the future of the French culture in Québec.
In short, the province will continue to face a peculiar dilemma. Either it accepts its fate to undergo long term cultural and linguistic shifts to secure a certain level of economic dynamism or it retreats once again in a form of passive cultural resistance and survival.
When analyzing some of the challenges the developing world faced over the decades, we often highlight the brain drain as a negative and detrimental impact for these societies. For the small French speaking society of Québec, we could also argue that it suffered, albeit to a lesser extent, a drain of some of the most dynamic members of its society.
Over the course of its history, Québec seems to be disproportionately loosing the most liberty-oriented elements of its society (like the Coureurs des bois profile of the 17th century and the highly mobile citizens more recently).
A social phenomenon every leader in the province of Québec should be obsessing about on a daily basis, rather than trying to legislate, over and over again, the symptoms.
In recent years, I often hear some of my compatriots wonder what happened to our small nation; “Didn’t our ancestors espoused liberty and demonstrated courage to establish themselves in this nordic territory.” They sure did.
But what I tried to demonstrate and argue in this 2 part series is that many of the dynamic, liberty oriented and entrepreneur minded individuals left in droves over the centuries thus gradually shaping the more government-centric and huge welfare state of today’s Québec.
Wow! Méchante rétrospective de notre histoire qui semble être en perpétuelle perte de vitesse. Jamais l’exode vers nos voisins ne m’a été si clairement imagé, on nous présente toujours le petit québécois travaillant dans de mauvaises conditions et dans la pauvreté. Je n’avais jamais réalisé l’ampleur de ce mouvement alors que dans mon travail avec les américains, je rencontrais une multitude de noms et prénoms francophones, je trouvais ça bizarre aujourd’hui un peu moins. Merci
This helps explain all my francophone neighbors in the 70s in rural Maine.